Apple Predicted To Sell 100 Million iPhones By The End of 2011

The iPhone that debuted in 2007 has become the most famous Smartphone in the entire world and its popularity will continue to rise with the release of the iPhone 4, a faster, thinner model by the end of the month. It seems that Apple’s expectations have exceeded as the company received more than 600,000 preorders for the iPhone 4 that will be released in the U.S. and four other countries on June 24. And as if their success and continuously increasing profit is not enough during this rough financial crisis the world is confronted with, Apple is predicted to sell 100 million iPhones by the end of 2011.
At least this is what Morgan Stanley analyst, Katy Huberty, has claimed in a new research. He said that the company will more than triple iPhone ownership (iPhone 2G, 3G, 3GS and the new iPhone 4) in the next year and a half and that it will have a 30 percent upgrade rate for existing customers by selling at least 42 million iPhones in calendar year 2010. He also claims that if the rate hits 50 percent, sales will grow to 48 million, a very respectable number. In 2011, Huberty expects another 19 million upgrades.
“We see the iPhone installed base rising from approximately 30 million subscribers at the end of 2009 to over 100 million by the end of 2011,” said the analyst in a report last week. “Upgrades will emerge as a key demand driver in the coming years. We believe there are several key drivers of iPhone upgrades including: 1) Redesigned hardware with many new important features, 2) ‘Stickiness’ of the installed base due to App store and iTunes, 3) 57% of U.S. installed base is not fully upgradeable to iOS4 (i.e. no multitasking), 4) Early upgrade incentives from AT&T and 5) Maturation of the installed base. We would also point to AT&T’s introduction of tiered data pricing (that potentially reduces iPhone total cost of ownership by 20%+) as a possible driver of the strong initial pre-order activity.”
Whether or not Huberty’s predictions will come true, remain to be seen. However, his predictions might turn out to be exact regarding the fact that Apple raised $4.62 to $271.87 at 4 p.m. New York time in trading and that the company’s shares have advanced 29 percent this year. Currently, Apple holds about 28 percent of the U.S. smartphone market, according to Nielsen.

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